456: Inside The Crazy World Of Traditional Book Publishing With Michael Drew

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Traditional book publishing is not the sales-driven meritocracy most authors think it is. On this episode of the My Wife Quit Her Job podcast, I sat down with Michael Drew, founder of PromoteABook.com, who has launched 124 consecutive titles onto the national bestseller list. Michael walked me through the real economics behind a traditionally published book: the retailer keeps roughly half the cover price, printing eats another 15%, the publisher pays for shelf space out of what remains, and the author is left with a $1 to $3 royalty on a $20 hardcover.

Even more surprising, the New York Times bestseller list is not a real sales chart. It is an editorial list with a documented set of standards, and Michael has reverse-engineered those standards over 24 years to hit them consistently.

Here is exactly how the industry works today, why publishers no longer market books, and what a first-time author has to bring to the table to have a real shot at a bestseller list.

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Key takeaways

• The number of new books published each year has exploded from 76,000 in 1999 to 1,076,000 in 2022, roughly 600,000 of them in print, but retail bookstores still only have room for about 20,000 to 30,000 new titles a year.
• On a $20 hardcover, the retailer keeps about $10, printing costs about $3, co-op (paid shelf space) averages another $3, and the author gets around $2, leaving the publisher with roughly $2 per unit before overhead.
• New York publishers’ 20,000 titles a year now average about 500 copies sold per book. Across all 1,076,000 titles, the average is closer to 100 copies per title, sold.
• The New York Times bestseller list is an editorial list with five documented standards: retail distribution of at least 10,000 copies, roughly 20,000 pre-sold print units, 10,000+ ebook sales, deep online social proof (hundreds of blogs, podcasts, and vlogs), and traditional media in 100+ markets across TV, radio, and print.
• The Wall Street Journal is a more valuable list than the New York Times for business, wealth, and money titles. USA Today is more valuable for diet, health, and mass-market nonfiction, because the readers of those lists are the buyers of those books.

Why publishers no longer market books

Publishers no longer market books because the per-unit economics leave them with roughly $2 of gross margin on a $20 hardcover, which is not enough to fund a marketing campaign. The publisher’s job today is distribution and rights sales. Marketing is the author’s job.

Michael broke down the flow of a $20 hardcover: the retailer keeps 50 to 55% ($10 to $11), printing runs about $3 a unit for hardcover, co-op (paid shelf placement) averages another $3, and the author royalty is $2 to $3. The publisher clears roughly $2 before any overhead, warehousing, shipping, or returns.

“There’s really no budget left for them to spend on marketing, PR, and advertising,” Michael said on the show. “This is why they require that their authors bring the marketing to the table.”

That is the single most important thing a first-time author needs to accept before signing a book deal. The publisher is a distribution partner and a rights broker, and the marketing platform has to come from you.

How the book publishing industry actually makes money

The book publishing industry makes money on a 95/5 rule: 5% of books make 95% of the money, and publishers use foreign rights, subsidiary rights, and TV or film rights to get as close to breakeven as possible on the other 95%. New York publishers are also almost all owned by multimedia conglomerates that use books as a top-of-funnel for other revenue streams.

Foreign rights are a real business by themselves. A publisher in Portugal might pay $10,000 to $20,000 for the rights to a moderately successful US title, and South Korea, Japan, or India might pay $50,000 for the right book. The author typically gets 30 to 50% of that payment, depending on the contract.

That is how a publisher stays in business on a portfolio of books that mostly sell 500 copies. A single Trump, Biden, or celebrity title that moves 10 million units carries the P&L, foreign rights recoup the losses on the middle of the list, and the front-list co-op on the long tail gets treated as a cost of doing business.

How much do books actually sell today?

The average New York publisher title now sells about 500 copies. Across all 1,076,000 books published in 2022, the average is roughly 100 copies per title. Those numbers are drastically lower than they were 20 years ago, and the reason is supply.

When Michael started publishing in 1999, roughly 76,000 new books were released. In 2022 the number was 1,076,000, split about evenly between print and digital ISBNs. That is more than a 14x increase in supply against a shelf-space pool that has barely grown.

A typical retail bookstore carries about 100,000 titles. Around 70 to 80% of those are backlist (perennials, classics, and last year’s bestsellers), leaving room for 20,000 to 30,000 new titles a year. So of the 600,000 new print titles published in 2022, at most 30,000 got onto a physical retail shelf at all.

What is co-op, and why every publisher pays for shelf space

Co-op is paid shelf-space placement inside a retail bookstore. Every publisher has to offer it on every new title, because every competing publisher does, and without co-op the retailer will not stock the book. Co-op is merchandising, same as an end-cap fee in a grocery store.

The rate card Michael described is roughly:

• $1 per unit for spine-out placement on a shelf.
• $2 per unit for face-out placement on a shelf.
• $3 per unit for end-cap placement.
• $4 per unit for a table at the front of the store.
• $5 per unit for a special display or point-of-purchase placement.

Each retailer grades every new book A through F based on the author’s last book sales at that chain, the average sales of the publisher at that chain, the average sales of the category at that chain, and the marketing plan the author is bringing to the table. That grade dictates both the number of copies stocked and the co-op tier offered.

Books are also 100% returnable from the retailer back to the publisher, unlike most other merchandise. So even a fully-stocked front-of-store book can bounce back to the warehouse in 60 to 90 days if the sell-through is not there.

Are ebook sales replacing print books?

Ebook sales are not replacing print books. Ebooks peaked around 30% of book sales and have since fallen back, while about 75% of all book sales still go through brick-and-mortar retailers like Barnes and Noble, Books-A-Million, the 2,000 remaining independents, Walmart, Costco, Target, Sam’s Club, grocery stores, and airport shops.

Amazon is the largest single book retailer at about 16.7% of sales. Barnes and Noble is number two at about 11.1%. Total online sales (Amazon, BN.com, and every other online retailer combined) sit at around 24.6% of the market.

That mix explains why the publisher’s whole system still revolves around physical distribution and co-op. The digital revolution never overtook the shelf in books the way it did in music, and the industry Michael described is still fundamentally a brick-and-mortar business.

The 5 New York Times bestseller list standards, in order

The New York Times bestseller list is an editorial list, not a real sales chart. In fine print at the bottom of the list, the Times states that it can include or exclude any book at its editorial discretion.

Michael has reverse-engineered five standards from 24 years of campaigns that, when hit together, essentially guarantee inclusion. Miss one and you drop into the editorial gray zone.

Here are the five standards, in the order Michael runs them for a campaign:

Standard 1: 10,000+ copies of retail distribution

The book has to be physically stocked in at least 10,000 copies across the reporting retailers before the campaign starts. Without that footprint, the Times has no way to validate why sales are being reported, so the launch is dead on arrival regardless of how many pre-orders you have.

Standard 2: Roughly 20,000 pre-sold print units

Michael targets 20,000 pre-sold print units, split and released strategically to the reporting retailers within a single week. He does not use a legal publisher embargo (retailers hate embargoes because they cannot bank the cash). Instead he has the author hold the orders and controls a synchronized release across Amazon, Barnes and Noble, Books-A-Million, and the other reporting chains.

Standard 3: 10,000+ ebook sales in the launch window

The Times killed its standalone ebook list in February 2017 and folded ebook sales into the qualifying standards for the main list. Michael runs promotions across Kindle, Kobo, and Nook to hit 10,000 or more ebook units during the same launch window as the print push.

Standard 4: Deep online social proof

The Times launched a spidering technology in 2017 that scans the open web for evidence of legitimate reader interest around a launching book. Michael aims for 350 blog posts, 90 vlogs, and 90 podcasts in the release month, plus social media activity that drives roughly 50,000 consumer engagements (likes, shares, comments) across Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

Standard 5: Traditional media in 100+ markets

The Times still wants old-media coverage: 100 markets on TV, 100 markets on radio, and 100 markets in print. Syndication makes TV and radio achievable with a strong PR firm and a single national booking. Print is harder because newspaper syndication has largely collapsed, so publicists use matte releases and other tactics to fill the 100 print markets.

Which bestseller list is best for your book?

The best bestseller list for your book depends on who reads that list. For fiction, the New York Times is the top prize.

For business and money titles, the Wall Street Journal reaches the buyers who can hire you or bulk-buy your book. For diet, health, and broad nonfiction, USA Today reaches the mass consumer audience.

New York Times

The most prestigious industry list overall and the gold standard for fiction. But Michael’s data shows New York Times readers are largely literary readers, so a business or health book that hits the list often sees little direct sales lift from the placement itself.

Wall Street Journal

The single most valuable list for business, money, wealth, and business-adjacent personal development titles like Secrets of the Millionaire Mind. A #1 Wall Street Journal position on a business book beats a mid-list New York Times slot, because the WSJ audience actually buys and gifts business books at scale.

USA Today

The most valuable list for diet, health, cookbook, and broad-consumer nonfiction. USA Today has the widest general-consumer footprint of the three national lists, so a #1 in a mass-market category can beat a mid-list New York Times position on the same book.

Regional lists

The LA Times, Chicago Tribune, and Publishers Weekly all run lists that carry weight in their regional or industry pockets. Useful if your platform is heavily concentrated in that market, less useful nationally.

Comparison: cost and floor to hit each major bestseller list

• New York Times: 10,000+ retail copies stocked, 20,000 pre-sold print units, 10,000+ ebook sales, 350 blogs plus 90 vlogs plus 90 podcasts, and 100-market TV/radio/print coverage. Best fit for literary fiction and cross-category nonfiction.
• Wall Street Journal: Lower absolute unit threshold than NYT but more concentrated in business channels. Best fit for business, money, wealth, and business-adjacent personal development.
• USA Today: Purely a sales list (no editorial gate), so the play is aggregate first-week volume across all formats. Best fit for diet, health, cookbooks, and mass-market nonfiction.

What a first-time author should actually do

A first-time author should focus on maximizing distribution and marketing on the first book, because a first title can actually earn more retail distribution than a second book if the marketing plan is strong. Retailers have no track record to hold against you, so a credible platform and campaign can win aggressive placement.

Michael’s advice: throw everything at the launch. Overdeliver on 80%+ of everything you promise the publisher and the retailers. Your first book’s performance is what dictates the distribution the retail buyers will give your next book, and the one after that.

Do not plan a New York Times campaign on book one. Michael’s Times bestsellers usually run their first NYT campaign on their third, fourth, or fifth book, over a three to ten year runway of building platform and audience while shipping earlier titles. The point of the first few books is to build the machine that makes a Times campaign possible later.

Why gifting a book almost guarantees it will not be read

Gifting a book almost guarantees it will not be read, because the currency a reader spends on a book is not $20 of price, it is four to eight hours of time. That decision only gets made when the reader has already decided they want to read that specific book.

“Unless they had already predetermined they wanted to read that book, the probability of them reading that book is very, very remote,” Michael said. He calls this the “shelf help” problem: bookshelves lined with unread self-help and business books that were gifted with the best intentions.

Books also do not compete only with other books. They compete with every sporting event, TV show, movie, video game, YouTube video, and church service that the reader could spend those same four to eight hours on. That is the actual bar you have to clear to earn a read.

Frequently asked questions

How much does an author earn per book sold?

An author earns about $2 to $3 in royalty per hardcover unit sold on a $20 to $25 retail price, and typically half that on a paperback. On a $20 hardcover, the retailer keeps roughly $10, printing costs about $3, co-op takes another $3, the author gets $2 to $3, and the publisher clears about $2 before overhead.

Is the New York Times bestseller list based on real sales?

The New York Times bestseller list is not a real sales chart. It is an editorial list, and the Times states in the fine print that it can include or exclude any book at its editorial discretion. Books that hit all five of the Times’ published standards (retail distribution, sales volume, ebook sales, online social proof, and traditional media coverage) qualify technically, and books that miss a standard drop into an editorial decision.

How many books does a typical traditionally published book sell?

A typical traditionally published book from a New York publisher now sells about 500 copies. Across all 1,076,000 titles published in 2022, the average is closer to 100 copies per book. The 5% of titles that hit real velocity carry roughly 95% of all industry revenue.

Why do publishers not market books anymore?

Publishers do not market books anymore because they only clear about $2 of margin per unit on a $20 hardcover, which is not enough to fund a real marketing campaign. Publishers act like venture capitalists: they underwrite printing, distribution, and co-op, and expect the author to bring the marketing platform, PR, and audience to drive sell-through at the retailer.

What is co-op in book publishing?

Co-op in book publishing is paid shelf-space placement inside a retail bookstore, ranging from about $1 per unit for spine-out placement to $5 per unit for a special point-of-purchase display. Every publisher pays co-op on every new title because every competing publisher does, so without it the book will not be stocked.

Should a first-time author target the New York Times list?

A first-time author should almost never target the New York Times list on book one. Michael’s clients typically run their first NYT campaign on their third, fourth, or fifth book, over a 3 to 10 year platform-building runway. The first few books exist to build the audience, media, and retail track record that a Times campaign requires.

Are ebooks replacing print books?

Ebooks are not replacing print books. Ebook share of total book sales peaked around 30% and has since fallen back, while roughly 75% of all books are still sold through physical brick-and-mortar retailers. Amazon is the single largest retailer at about 16.7% of sales, and total online sales sit near 24.6% of the market.

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